🔮Why Amazon and Netflix’s CEOs Say No Doubt Their Companies Will Vanish

All good things must come to an end. This proverb dates back to 1374 which even then proved that life was as complicated as is today.

Back in 2018, Jeff Bezos told employees at an all-hands meeting that Amazon is “not too big to fail.” Now, this is hard to believe especially since Amazon, arguably the leading and most lucrative e-commerce site in the world sells products that are constantly in demand and only picked up demand as the pandemic raged when most businesses laid-off workers and scrambled to survive. The reason I bring this up is not that I have any pessimistic outlooks towards the company in the future. In fact, I’m an avid Prime member since 2010 and see a box at my doorstep at least 3x a week. I’m just concerned about why Bezos thinks this way and is turning heads on the company only 30 years in. In the business world, that time frame is just getting started.

Bezos’ main concern for the past 10 years: The potential for government regulation as it expands internationally, takes over 97% of the commerce market, and is turning into a monopoly.

So where is this all headed? Do all great companies have to go extinct one day due to new processes and the evolution of new things? Are our attention spans to blame or is it purely government control?

This isn’t about whether or not Amazon will go bankrupt or kaput one day, although it isn’t hard to imagine since September of 2020, the total debt the company has accumulated has surpassed 90 billion at 96.09b. But not to worry, the largest Fortune 500 companies seem to all be in the tie as well. From Tesla with over 12b in cash and only $2.21b net cash to Apple’s long term debt at 94b, this is not only a poor example for citizens of the US to follow assuming that money can be easily printed from the Fed anytime and once filed for bankruptcy the debt will be gone, but it is also worrisome for investors for how long until a bubble.

Speaking of bubbles, on the market front, the Dot-Com crash memories are being pondered by countless high ultra net worth investors these days as skepticism around overvaluation in trendy stocks doesn’t seem like a good outcome.

So what does Bezos do about this?

Bezos’ Brilliance

But what is more fascinating past the financials and all the predictions you can make, is Bezos’s brutal honesty about where he sees his baby headed. At the meeting in 2018, he shared with shareholders, “Amazon is not too big to fail,” Bezos said, in a recording of the meeting that CNBC has heard.

“In fact, I predict one day Amazon will fail. Amazon will go bankrupt. If you look at large companies, their lifespans tend to be 30-plus years, not hundred-plus years.”

We all know Amazon is obsessed over customers and this is one way Bezos is trying to delay the day it is gone for as long as possible. But doesn’t every businessman worry about that day? Not exactly. All dread it and don’t want to happen but only a few talk and strategize upon it. He acknowledges it will happen and it is hard not to be astonished that one of the greatest CEOs of all time would say that out loud.

Are you supposed to do that?

The Female Voice

Taking it back a notch to our neck of the woods, if you see something, say something.

Especially as a female in male-dominated fields such as STEM and finance, it is typical for women to stay silent on their opinions and lose the confidence in providing their keen and brilliant insight to the conversation in fear of losing a position. When a woman uses her voice, it is seen more as a condescending plea even if she says nothing at all. The fact that she speaks already breaks out judgment from others.

Compared to a man, not only others listen and believe more, his thoughts are more respected for no reason. It is conventional and seen as normal that men can speak up, hiss, and refute with no consequence while a female would have to stay an extra few minutes at the end of the meeting to apologize for nothing. Most of the time what we don’t want to hear needs to be said because, in the long run, it can easily hurt the company more than heal it. And when it comes to providing insight, females are great at it, especially when it comes to finances. There’s no gambling involved. Secrets are not worth keeping unless they are more powerful spoken.

Amazon’s Problem

It’s not that every company fails. Some haven’t, yet. To name a few of the largest corporations in the world, Coke has been around for 128 years, Target for 119 and Walmart for 58 years. They are thriving but there is no doubt there’s been scrutiny, broken balance sheets, corrupt employees that have lead to hurdles and possibly made the companies be on the brink of extinction.

Due to Amazon’s sizeable market, power and influence, closer regulation makes it difficult to expand and last longer. “It’s a fact that we’re a large company,” Bezos said, according to a recording. “It’s reasonable for large institutions of any kind, whether it be companies or governments, to be scrutinized.”

Compared to Coke, Walmart, or even Netflix which recently turned 30, they haven’t grown as large as Amazon has so government regulations and the potential for antitrust violations were never big concerns for the company’s future. Except for Coke and Walmart, Netflix and Amazon are in the same boat. Beaten by regulators, loads of debt and innovation that wasn’t necessarily designed for either of these two behemoths.

Doer vs. Leader

So learning from Bezos’ All-Hands speech, when is it appropriate to speak your mind and say something bluntly honest about what you think will happen?

It is important to always factor in other’s emotions when speaking to someone. It can easily be overlooked when trying to get the message across or make big decisions, but that’s usually where the problem lies. What Bezos did here is unfortunately unusual. To the world during a time of unprecedented success at Amazon with its core retail business soaring while the company is beating the massive cloud-computing market and adoption of its new technologies such as its Alexa voice assistant and the Halo health tracker, Bezos decided to speak the truth. You’ll learn early on that public speeches can’t always be jolly becuase that means something is wrong. Shareholders and stakeholders of Amazon in fact have the most confidence in the company due to Bezos sharing the truth constantly. Would you rather have a doer who sugar coats information and is close-minded or a true leader that isn’t afraid to talk about mistakes and hurdles to come even if it makes investors more skeptical initially?

What differntiates those who live in the progress or look ahead of it, are doers versus leaders. Most of us want to hide under our feelings about the future and not address the issue of anything. Just look at our former president. He never condemned the violence at the Capital or riots throughout his term, never respected the peaceful transfer of power for the democratic system nor take any blame for the faulty action against the Covid crisis in the US.

What’s Next?

What is for sure is that in order for Amazon to prosper for as long as it can which looks like there is no doubt it will, Bezos has to keep his leadership style, openness, and honesty the same. We overlook who makes up the organization and what the culture is like to ultimately shape the future of the world. Bezos stressed the importance of distinguishing Amazon’s story so that it doesn’t get bundled together with other tech companies, something Coke and Pepsi haven’t been great at.

Looking back at what Bezos said in 2018 and comparing it to the countless antitrust hearings against monopolistic FAANGs in 2020, there is no doubt this is still an issue that Biden will only pinpoint further. With Amazon, I’m convinced it has a good story to tell improving the lives of its customers compared to the discrepancies against social media these days, especially with the freedom of speech debate banning Trump’s accounts.

Amazon has a different business model than its tech peers.

Yet, what keeps Amazon going is no doubt Bezos’ charismatic and unique spirit towards innovation. Confidence is a buzz word, look into the truth through charisma instead.

At the end of the meeting, Bezos stated, “When looking to the types of companies that have made it the longest, they tend to sell a particular type of alcohol. Most of the companies that are multi-hundred-year-old companies are breweries,” he said with a laugh. “It’s very interesting — I’m not sure what that says about society.”

Blue Origin, Amazon, Bezos Brewery is next?AB to Z?