The economy can reveal a great deal about where the not-so-distant consumer sentiment trends are headed and how thick Americans’ wallets really are.
Since the real estate market lags behind the broader stock market universe by a couple of months, economic indicators are a useful guide to detecting where supply/demand levels will end up for the sector.
If you’re a fan of UofMichan’s Consumer Sentiment reading (not their football team), you’ve probably been witnessing its dramatic dip over the last few months due to rock-bottom savings rates, rampant inflation, higher borrowing costs, and overall angst that’s been brewing in the economy since Jan 2022.
However, just because the general public, where 54% of Americans aren’t invested anyways are panicking, doesn’t mean you have to. In fact, when others are fearful, you should be greedy! There may be no better time to start something new than during a bear market after all.
If you listen closely enough to how the markets are seesawing and Americans are currently faring, these signs can hint at when you have a higher chance of finding the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow and when it’s off the table.
Spoiler Alert: It starts with never playing the lotto in the first place!
Let me show you why.
Although many economists and analysts find it hard to believe that Congress and the Federal Government watch out for us, let’s not forget, they are in it in some shape and form and need to make a living somehow as well, usually from their most tax-advantageous sources: stock market investments not income that is fully taxable.
Given many notable people employed by the House of Congress and the Federal government are multi-millionaires such as Powell and Pelosi, they are looking to continue to keep their steady protected paychecks as well.
Sadly, this is usually done in the form of tax hikes through raising property taxes by sabotaging homeowners’ however when it comes to the direct stock market, they have large stakes in it and don’t want to see their 5th Ave mansion or Santa Barbara winery estates go up in literal and financial flames.
As a result, monetary and fiscal policy are encouraged responsibly and thankfully influenced to help the American people not suffer, particularly when it comes to their wallets. Clearly, the Fed has been sleeping behind the wheel for the past two years with record-low interest rates pumping cheap and speculative capital and is finally raising it.
Today there is wide speculation on whether the Fed will be able to halt the breaks on frivolous borrowing while engineering a soft landing. Wherever their maneuvering ends up, it may offer you the best opportunity of a lifetime if you look hard enough in the right places.
Lottery Talk
Now, I’m not a fan of get-rich-quick schemes. If I was, I wouldn’t be writing. That may sound surprising given I’m at the most gullible glorious age of 21 yrs young where short-term attention spans and enticing fake ads may get the best of me, however, I’m a personal finance connoisseur and prudent investor after all so I must have my guardrails up to sniff a bad deal from a mile away.
When it comes to the lottery, I’m sure you’ve read the devastating stats that a winner is more likely to get into debt after winning the lottery than from their current financial situation which was most likely worse from the start; or the statistic that reads that lottery winners are less happy than those living in poverty, etc.
Whether you believe it or not, the best way to find out is to win and see for yourself!
You won’t be surprised since this is sadly always the case due to an overreliance on money and not enough on anything else so I would advise not to try to win and trust the facts instead! It’ll save you practically everything in the long run.
We all feel lucky and experience ‘hot hands (big breaks)’ in our professional and personal lives once in a while. It may last a few years or a few minutes as with basketball players’ lucky drop shots but what is constant long term is that we all get back to our ‘normal’ states eventually where no matter how much more you have of something, it won’t elevate much, especially your happiness, only greed.
Whatever the case may be, it’s important to remember that nothing happens overnight and consistency is the best predictor for success, not a lack of impatience or cutting corners.
FOMO Fears
When it comes to the economy and better predicting any sort of luck that may be presented on the horizon, it starts with dissecting consumer spending habits and mindset.
It’s no surprise when consumers have a more stable cash cushion, they’re willing to treat themselves however I find it dangerous when the economy is in limbo and job cuts + hiring slow while revenge spending is still up, consumers spend even more!
More worry = larger splurges based on false hope such as with a lottery ticket.
This is a mindblowing realization that many don’t seem to grasp which defines all the frivolous revenge FOMO pandemic spending that’s going on today.
With an influx of new investors during lockdown alongside the extra windfall and stimi checks gifted by the government, Americans are more audacious for the wrong reasons mainly driven by fear and uncertainty more than ever before.
When it comes to consumers’ greed and habits of $6 avocado toast, cruise trips, and most evidently, lottery ticket splurges gone wild in 2022, it’s a concerning sign consumers are feeling less safe today than during the darkest days of the pandemic when winning the lottery did seem impossible and unrealistic for the right reasons because it is!
Although Americans report being in the best financial position of their lives, better than pre-pandemic times, I would like you to question what does ‘better’ really mean?
A temporary investment windfall from betting on the right meme stocks in Jan 2021 or real security and confidence going into a recession?
It’s important to note, if you haven’t noticed yourself, Americans prefer to live in the present and YOLO rather than plan for their future. If we’ve learned anything during the pandemic, it’s to plan for the worst and hope for the best however with Americans feeling ‘too lucky’, this has translated into far too much fear that can all be prevented for the future.
Only time will tell on how rampant spending will go but for as long as we know, eventually, rate-sensitive borrowing will hit consumers sooner than later, and winning any jackpot will not be all that common anymore nor cool, especially since one’s chances of winning the lottery are slimmer than reaching that sum in the markets the slow and steady way.
Particularly today with more uncertainty looming than during the brief correction of March 2020, put your dollars to work on something that is actually guaranteed such as through higher yields on your cash in treasuries, not on an inconceivable lump sum you have a 1 in a 230m+ chance of winning. Now is not the time to waste your precious pandemic earnings and investment returns, especially for no guaranteed return, a rarity in the markets in itself.